Tensions between India and Pakistan have escalated along the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir, raising concerns about a potential larger conflict. While a full-scale war is currently unlikely, the situation remains volatile due to a complex mix of factors, including Pakistan’s internal political instability and ongoing disputes over Kashmir.

Over the past week, reports from both sides indicate an increase in ceasefire violations, mainly involving artillery and small arms fire, in the Poonch and Rajouri sectors of Jammu and Kashmir. The Indian Army has responded “strongly and effectively” to these provocations, maintaining a high level of operational readiness. Pakistan’s military has claimed to be responding to unprovoked Indian aggression.

The Director-General of Military Operations (DGMO) from both countries have established communication channels, though details of the conversations remain confidential. Diplomatic efforts are underway to de-escalate the situation, with international actors, including the United States and China, closely monitoring the situation and urging restraint and dialogue.

Nationalist narratives are being amplified within both countries, particularly through media outlets and social media platforms, hardening public opinion. Pakistan’s new government, led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, faces significant economic challenges and internal political opposition, leading some analysts to suggest that a focus on external threats could be a tactic to consolidate power.

India continues to accuse Pakistan of supporting cross-border terrorism and providing safe haven to militant groups operating in Kashmir, a charge Pakistan denies. The situation is further complicated by the ongoing conflict in Afghanistan and the potential for regional instability.

Despite current tensions, a full-blown India-Pakistan war is considered improbable due to the devastating consequences of nuclear escalation. Experts suggest that sustained diplomatic efforts, focused on addressing the root causes of the conflict, particularly the Kashmir dispute, are crucial to preventing further escalation and building lasting peace. The US State Department has reiterated its commitment to regional stability and offered to facilitate communication between the two nations, while China, a key ally of Pakistan, has called for a peaceful resolution to the dispute.